The most accurate pollster during the 2020 election has put Donald Trump in the lead for the first time in this race.
The polling firm AtlasIntel which correctly predicted that Joe Biden wild best Trump is now giving Trump the edge only two weeks out from Election Day.
The newest AtlasIntel poll finds that Trump is ahead nationally by three points, 50.7 percent to 47,6 percent for Harris.
HEAD-TO-HEAD SCENARIO
The time series for the scenario that includes only Trump and Harris reinforces this stability, with minimal fluctuations for both candidates since Harris entered the race. pic.twitter.com/CQrV1nsGY9
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) October 19, 2024
That might put the Electoral College at 323 for Trump and 215 for Harris. (270 are needed to win)
#NEW 2024 election forecast based on most accurate poll of 2020
Electoral college:
🔴 Trump: 323 🏆
🔵 Harris: 215Popular vote:
🔴 Trump: 50.7% (+3.1)
🔵 Harris: 47.6%Battleground margins:
🔵 ME: Harris+2.5
🔵 VA: Harris+1.8
🔵 NH: Harris+0.8
🔴 MN: Trump+1.4
🔴 MI:… pic.twitter.com/xqi3hSWxPU— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 19, 2024
And AtlasIntel says:
ELECTORAL COLLEGE PROJECTION
Based on these results, Trump currently has an advantage in the Electoral College, with 253 votes compared to 226 for Harris. The narrow margins in Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina leave 59 electoral votes still in play. pic.twitter.com/81MOlNJxkL
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) October 19, 2024
Anyway, of course we don’t know for sure. But so many polls are finally starting to trend toward Trump that it really is hard to say it can’t be real.
However, it is still all within the margin of error and is very close.
Don’t get complacent. Go vote for Trump.
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