At least one absurd, lefty, and failed poll is going the way of the Dodo bird. Leftist pollster Ann Selzer has announced that she is closing her polling firm down after so badly missing her 2024 prediction of a Harris blowout in Iowa.
You might recall the Selzer Poll had absurdly predicted that Harris would win the state of Iowa by at least 3 points in the last weeks of the presidential contest. The poll only missed it by about 14 points as Trump won the state in a blowout.
Selzer wasn’t alone in predicting a late Harris surge (that didn’t exist). However, what made her muffed prognostication so hilarious is that she was speaking to Iowa, not the country as a whole. But, everyone knew there was never even the tiniest chance that Harris would come any where near winning Iowa.
Final polls from the most reputable polls
Marist
Wisconsin 🔵 Harris +2
Pennsylvania 🔵 Harris +2
Michigan 🔵 Harris +2Marquette
Wisconsin 🔵 Harris +1Selzer
Iowa 🔵 Harris +3NYT/Siena tomorrow pic.twitter.com/4Lz7mM6qwF
— Mark (@LouieFanaticBoy) November 2, 2024
Trump had Iowa wrapped up the whole time and everyone knew it. But out came Selzer — who was called the “gold standard” in polling in Iowa — to say that Harris was surging in the Hawkeye State.
What a foolish claim to make.
I'm posting this now since @Nate_Cohn hinted that the Selzer poll was designed to help give him and the NYT/Siena poll cover to release polls tomorrow showing a late "surge" for Kamala Harris.
Below is the @nytimes/@SienaResearch track record from 2020.
They missed outside the… pic.twitter.com/AUTso8ric8
— David Giglio (@DavidGiglioCA) November 3, 2024
Even history predicted Iowa was Trump country. Trump carried Iowa by 8.5 points even when he lost the election to Biden in 2020! This year was an even bigger blowout as he won Iowa by nearly 14 points.
There was never any chance whatever of Harris taking Iowa. Not a scintilla. Still, there WAS a reason Selzer pushed out her idiotic prognostication. The only reason Selzer pushed out that pile of garbage is to try and buck up Harris voters nationwide. Her goal was not to tell us what might happen in Iowa, but what she WANTED to happen nationally. She was knowingly lying in the hope that her “poll” could create an outcome, not merely detect one.
Now, we can finally mark the exit of Ann Selzer from polling. She has announced that she is giving up polling for “other opportunities.”
That’s one down, dozens more to go!
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