I returned earlier this week from visiting historic sites around Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington, D.C. and places in betwixt. Across roughly 1,500 miles, as is often the case, a journalist converses with people at museums, diners or rest areas.
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The Keystone State has gone back and forth in the last few elections. Donald Trump’s razor-thin 2016 victory by fewer than 45,000 votes out of over 6 million casts surprised many, and four years later, Biden won Pennsylvania by just over 1%. The current president may have been assisted by lackluster populists, endorsed down ballot by Trump, like Mehmet Oz, who sneaked by in a controversial primary, then embarrassingly lost to comatose John Fetterman by 5%. Conspiracy theorist Doug Mastriano fell badly to Josh Shapiro in the governor’s race.
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Pennsylvanians benefited from reliable two-term Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, who likely would have been re-elected but decided to retire, and now the state is entirely blue at the federal level, although Republicans maintain control of one state legislative chamber. This may have forced Shapiro, who some fancy a future presidential option, to run toward the center before fecklessly caving to the mighty teachers’ union’s abuse earlier this month.
There is a long-held stereotype that the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania is Philadelphia/Pittsburgh, with the bucolic hills and farms of “Alabama in the middle,” but with the state capital in Harrisburg and liberal-leaning enclaves elsewhere, it’s not so simple. Despite all the Trump and GOP signs on barns and tiny houses around the state’s back roads, the cities are massive, and college towns lean Democrat.
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One retired lawyer involved in local Republican politics as a county executive told me he’s supporting Nikki Haley for the Republican nomination.
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“She’s actually run something, and I think she’s likely about as tough as she implies she is,” he explained. “Plus, I don’t view her as a creature of Washington. Those are enough checked boxes.”
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A woman, probably in her 30s or early 40s, running a diner in York, had an NRA sticker by the cash register. I inquired, and she eventually said she admires Tim Scott “because he is likable and has a positive vision for the country, which is important.”
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A consultant near Philadelphia in his 50s told me he’s a registered Republican who “thinks of myself more as a centrist or independent.” He also prefers Haley.
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“She’s smart and conservative without being too right to be a uniter. She combines the chief executive experience as a governor with international expertise from her time as ambassador,” he argued. I mentioned Haley’s anemic poll numbers, to which he replied, “If not Haley, anyone but Trump, DeSantis, or Pence, who are all dangerous and reckless in their own ways and will further divide a country.”
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A young blue-collar man in Bedford said he’s still behind Trump, but “I also like DeSantis, and it’s possible Trump’s chaos may push me toward” the Florida governor.
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Finally, speaking to a mid-40s government worker near Lancaster, he first bemoaned Oz’s loss last autumn, claiming “Oz was a fake Pennsylvanian. Nobody was interested in his snake oil.”
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On the presidential side, he echoed similar sentiments to others.
On the presidential side, he echoed similar sentiments to others.
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“Definitely not Trump. I liked DeSantis, but he seems uncomfortable so far, and I am concerned about him having a premature meltdown,” he suggested. “Ultimately, it might not matter, as I fully expect Trump supporters (of whom I was one until he lost his mind around year three) will sabotage this election if DJ doesn’t get the Republican nod. But if it is Trump, I will vote for him, as the Dems’ slippery slope means anything is possible.”
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An array of anecdotal views presented themselves, but it’s no longer “early”; it’s rapidly getting late. With fewer than six months before the Iowa Caucuses, it’s time for candidates to make a final push before the first debate next month.
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Ari Kaufman is a correspondent for several U.S. newspapers and magazines from Minnesota and Ohio to Tennessee and Virginia. He taught school and served as a military historian before beginning his journalism career. He is the author of three books, a frequent guest on radio programs, and a regular contributor here at The Lid.
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