Guest Post by Onan Coca
A recent analysis done by the liberal stat-geeks at FiveThirtyEight blog finds some very interesting, and compelling, data that argues connection between Black Lives Matter protests and sudden surges in violent crime.
A new FiveThirtyEight analysis of crime statistics out of Chicago reveals the recent spike in gun violence in the Windy City is directly related to the release of a video that shows the police shooting of Laquan McDonald and the protests, activism and reforms that followed shortly thereafter. The analysis provides strong evidence in support of the idea that Chicago is experiencing its own “Ferguson Effect” — a theory that says the recent increase in violent crime is the result of rank-and-file officers taking a less proactive approach to policing due to increased anti-police sentiment.
According to the FiveThirtyEight analysis, crime data shows 175 homicides and 675 nonfatal shootings incidents occurred in Chicago over the time period beginning December 1, 2015 and ending on March 31, 2016 (the McDonald shooting video was released on November 24, 2015). This reflects a 48% percent increase in homicides and a 73% increase in nonfatal shootings from the same time period one-year ago. FiveThirtyEight describes the statistical variations from year to year as too significant to be “explained by seasonal [weather] fluctuations or chance.”
FiveThirtyEight found some other interesting data from October to compare with the current data.
The trend of rising crime and falling arrests has been most dramatic with respect to gun violence. We can see this by looking at how often arrests are made in homicide7 and nonfatal shooting incidents. Chicago police made a relatively steady number of arrests per homicide and nonfatal shooting incident each year from 2001 through 2014. But the ratio of arrests for each fell in the immediate aftermath of the video’s release and then plummeted even further in March. Only seven of more than 500 nonfatal shooting incidents (about 1.4 percent) and 24 of 143 homicides (16.7 percent) in the first three months of 2016 have led to an arrest.8 By comparison, an arrest was made in 16 of 166 nonfatal shooting incidents (9.6 percent) and 7 of 30 homicides (23.3 percent) in October, the month before the video’s release. The average murder clearance rate for large cities is 61 percent, according to the most recent FBI statistics.
The evidence seems clear, even if the folks at Black Lives Matter and their liberal friends want to deny it.
Crossposted From EagleRising