Most polls conducted immediately after a convention are nonsense. The jumps that some candidates have after their party’s gathering is called a bounce for a reason–bounces have two halves up…and down. Usually there is something that breaks the euphoria causing the electorate to focus on the candidates. In 2008 McCain lead from the end of the RNC to the end of Sept when he bungled his response to the economic crisis.
The Rasmussen polls released today reported the end of Obama’s post convention bounce and it may have been done in by Romney’s response to the the violent attacks of our embassies which began on 9/11.
Beginning with the Convention (which started 9/4) Obama’s three day average started to rise in the polls hitting a peak in the 9/6 to 9/9 three day average period. As the President’s share of voters went up the Romney numbers started to decline from the prime-time convention attacks (I meant the speakers not the mainstream media but they helped also). Romney’s %of the vote was stuck at 45% for a few days.
Beginning with the 9/12 numbers (covering 9/10-12) Romney’s numbers began to rise while Obama’s began to fall. Today’s poll shows which started the day the violence began shows Romney with a small 3% lead (essentially back to where they were as the DNC convention began).
Gallup on the other hand shows the beginning of a trend, but keep in mind their numbers are a 7-Day average it reflecting change slower than the Rasmussen numbers, and most of today’s poll (covering 9/7-13) was taken before the violence started. Gallup had Obama with a one point lead (47-46%) in the seven day’s ending with the first day of the convention, with a 7 point (50 to 43%) for the week ending 9/11. Two days later we see the margin begin to close slowly to where it stands today 49 to 44%.
Folks a few days does not make a trend and neither service asked about the either candidate’s reaction to the horrible few days in the Mid-East, but this is something that needs to be watch over the next few days.