If Congressional elections were held today, Democratic Candidates would receive the bulk of votes from Democrats, but overwhelmingly lose support from Republicans and independents.
According to the latest Rasmussen Generic Ballot Poll, the republican vote inched up to the point where Republicans again hold a nine-point lead over Democrats. The caveat in this is that it is generic, and doesn’t take into account the individual candidates, or the make-up of the congressional districts.
The poll shows that 46% of voters would select the Republican congressional candidate and 37% would select the Democrat. This represents a 16% swing for the GOP since Barack Obama was inaugurated last January.
The latest numbers highlight a remarkable change in the political environment during 2009. When President Obama was inaugurated, Democrats enjoyed a seven-point advantage on the Generic Ballot. Throughout the fall and winter of 2008, support for Democratic congressional candidates ranged from 42% to 47%. Republican support ranged from 37% to 41%. The two parties were very close on the Generic Ballot throughout the spring of 2009, but Republicans pulled ahead for good in late June.
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Late June, just when the Obamacare debate began to really heat up, and the town hall meetings were in full swing. Voters do not like to be made to feel as if they are not being listened to.
The real bad news for the party of progressives is that independents have stopped drinking their kool-aid, among independents, the GOP leads this week by a near two-to-one margin, 46% to 24%.
In December, the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats2008 presidential campaign season began. fell to the lowest level recorded in more than seven years of monthly tracking by Rasmussen Reports. The number of Republicans inched up by a point to 34.0%. That’s the highest total for Republicans since December 2007, just before the
Republicans shouldn’t gloat. Republican voters remain unhappy with the job their legislators are doing. Seventy-five percent of GOP voters believe Republicans in Congress have lost touch with the party’s base throughout the nation over the past several years.
All voters feel more strongly than ever that Congress is performing poorly and that most of its members are in it for themselves. Only 32% are even somewhat confident that their representatives in Congress, regardless of party, are actually representing their best interests.
…This summer, the Democratic-controlled Congress began pushing ahead on a national health care plan which triggered angry congressional town hall meetings and public protests. This helps to explain why support for Republicans spiked in the second half of 2009 and why 61% of U.S. voters say Congress should drop health care reform and focus on more immediate ways to improve the economy and create jobs.
Shortly after Republican Scott Brown’s upset win in the special Senate election in Massachusetts, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said House Democrats did not have the votes to pass the health care legislation in its current form. In the final health care reform tracking poll: 58% opposed the plan before Congress, and 40% favored it.
Just 37% of U.S. voters now believe it is at least somewhat likely that Congress will be able to agree this year on a smaller, bipartisan health care plan.
The president’s State of the Union address is tomorrow evening, and recent reports suggest his focus will be on the economy. Voters are a little more concerned this month that the government will not do enough to help fix the economy and a bit more confident that last year’s $787-billion stimulus plan has actually been a benefit.
Most Americans favor the new effort by the president to recover some of the bailout money by taxing the nation’s largest banks. However, most only want the banks who received bailouts to pay the tax and think that other bailed-out institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also should be taxed.
Democratic incumbents who currently trail their challengers include Harry Reid in Nevada, Michael Bennet in Colorado, Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas and Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania. Barbara Boxer from California finds herself in a more competitive race than usual.
Republicans lead open-seat races in Delaware, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Dakota and Ohio. Democrats lead in Connecticut, and the race is close in Illinois. A commentary by political analyst Larry Sabato, suggests that if the election were held today, “the (59-seat) Democratic majority in the Senate would be reduced to just 52 seats.”
All this leading up to the State of the Union tomorrow night. To be successful the Democrats will have to actually moderate, not just pay it lip service with programs such as the President’s bogus spending freeze.