Rasmussen has just released its first report projecting the balance of power in the Senate after the the mid-term elections. Using their Senate race polls for a base, Rasmussen shows the Democrats with a 49-41 seat lead with ten seats up for grabs and the real campaign season won’t begin for another two months.

The polling shows that Republicans are poised to pick up Democratic-held Senate seats in four states—Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana and North Dakota. Arkansas’ Blanche Lincoln is the only incumbent senator currently projected to lose a seat. The other three are open-seat races following retirements by Democratic incumbents.

At the moment, outside of the Toss-Up states, no Republican-held seats appear headed for the Democratic column

Six of the 10 Toss-up states are currently Democratic seats, while four are held by the GOP.

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Among the six Democratic seats in the Toss-Up category, three are open seat races (Colorado, Illinois and Pennsylvania), and the Republicans have a slight edge in the most recent polling for each of those seats. As for Democratic incumbents in the Toss-Up category, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada finds himself trailing in the latest polling; Patty Murray of Washington is tied, and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin holds a very slight edge over a little-known opponent.

Richard Burr of North Carolina is the only Republican incumbent in the Toss-Up category. He has led the race for most of the year but now finds himself tied with the winner of a Democratic primary runoff. Other Republican seats in play at the moment are in Florida, Missouri and Ohio. In Florida, Republican Marco Rubio is tied with former Republican Charlie Crist. The GOP candidates have slight leads in Missouri and Ohio.

To take over the Senate the GOP would have to keep all of the solid and lean GOP races and win all of the toss up states.  As things look now, it is a very long shot that the GOP will retake the senate, however a year ago, it was a long shot that things would be this close.

Interestingly California is not in the solid Democratic column. Ma’am Senator Barbara Boxer is defiantly in trouble in her race.

The Chart below, puts the races into categories and links to the latest Rasmussen poll on the Senate Race.

There are currently two independents in the Senate, and Crist is running as an independent candidate in Florida. For purposes of the Balance of Power projections, all three are counted as Democrats.

Solid Dem
Lean Dem
Lean GOP
Solid GOP
Connecticut California Colorado Kentucky Alabama
Hawaii Florida N. Hampshire Alaska
Maryland Illinois Arizona
New York North Carolina Arkansas
New York (S) Missouri Delaware
Oregon Nevada Georgia
Vermont Ohio Idaho
Pennsylvania Indiana
Washington Iowa
Wisconsin Kansas
North Dakota
South Carolina
South Dakota