In 1994 when the GOP was on the precipice of retaking the House and Senate, all of the big shots got it wrong:
Here are excerpts from a few predictions by the major election analysts that were published in Campaigns & Elections two weeks before the 1994 midterms (Source Daily Beast):
- Charles Cook, editor and publisher of the Cook Political Report: “The Democrats will lose 20-25 in the House; four to five in the Senate. I’m seeing softening for Democrats in key Senate races, such as Virginia. Anti -incumbency, despondency among Democratic voters and a galvanization of GOP voters are the overarching trends. Democrats are disillusioned with Clinton; Republicans hate him and will turn out in droves. The GOP vote is coming home and it’s hardening earlier than usual.”
- Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Report, a political newsletter: “The Democrats will lose 24-26 seats in the House; three to five in the Senate. They’re vulnerable in the South and in traditionally Republican districts in the North that they’ve been able to hold in the past by splitting the Republicans. However, President Clinton’s unpopularity is uniting the GOP. This isn’t a particularly ideological election, though. It’s just insiders versus outsiders, and Democrats are the insiders right now. Voters remain skeptical about the role of government, another negative for Democrats. Clinton has tried to alter this widespread mistrust of governmental activism, but he hasn’t succeeded.”
- Larry Sabato, professor of government at the University of Virginia: “My slogan has always been: ‘He who lives by the Crystal Ball ends up eating ground glass.’ Nevertheless, it looks like Democrats will be lucky to lose only 24-25 seats in the House and four in the Senate. Much of it hinges on President Clinton’s popularity. Many of these elections are turning into a referendum on Bill Clinton, as is usually the case with mid-term elections and the President in power. About a half dozen Senate races will be decided with less than two percent of the vote. So last-minute trends will matter. Clinton could bounce back, as he’s done in the past, and that could reduce Democratic losses. I don’t think his approval rating will sink any lower than about 35 percent; that’s his floor and he’s close to it now. If anything, I think his popularity might rise a little bit between now and election day. When all is said and done, there’s only one thing we know for sure: the Democrats will lose a lot of seats in both Houses.”
- The other analysts’ predictions cited in the piece were 25 House seats (Jack Germond), 20-25 seats (Gloria Borger), 25 seats (Cokie Roberts), and 25 seats (William Schneider). Notice a pattern?
Of course that’s not what happened—instead Republicans ended up shocking the world with a 54-seat gain and their first House majority in 40 years. The point is, all off the polling and analysis could be way off, its happened before. There is only one way to make sure that the progressive policies that have been shoved down your throat for the past two years are stopped dead in their tracks…Get Out and VOTE!!!