There is another interesting story surrounding this poll. Back in September, many Romney supporters criticized Gallup for its methodology. They rightfully pointed out that Gallup’s sample was over-weighed toward Democrats.
Romney pollster Neil Newhouse insists that public polling averages are “skewed,” and that the 2012 electorate will not show the same minority and Dem base composition as the 2008 one did.
But in an interview with me, Obama campaign pollster Joel Benenson mocked the idea that the electorate will diverge meaningfully from that of 2008 as as delusional.
“The notion that this electorate isn’t going to be as diverse as it was is frankly a fantasy,” Benenson said…..
Benenson also noted that the electorate has, in fact, tilted Democratic by single digits in a number of recent presidential elections.
That was then this is now. After today’s polling that same Joel Benenson had a stroke because his guy was losing.
The Obama campaign today blasted the latest battleground state polling that finds Mitt Romney with a five point lead among likely voters, saying the Gallup/USA Today poll has “deep flaws.”
“Gallup’s data is once again far out of line with other public pollsters,” Obama’s pollster Joel Benenson wrote in a memo.
The survey of 12 key swing states finds Romney pulling ahead thanks to increased enthusiasm from women voters, a demographic that both campaigns have targeted aggressively. President Obama and the GOP nominee are tied 48 percent to 48 percent among women who are likely voters, the poll found.
Joel Benenson does have a point. After all Gallup has Romney/Obama tied with 48% of women. Pew was way different. Pew reflected a tie of only 47%.