A new Gallup poll finds that more American voters identify as Republican than they do Democrat for the first time in decades in the third quarter ahead of a national election.
Not only are more identifying as Republican, the margin is the largest in favor of the GOP ever recorded by Gallup.
Gallup’s timeline shows that the GOP has lagged behind the Democrats since 1992 with only one election cycle — when George W. Bush was running for his second term in 2004 — saw Republicans outpacing Democrats in party ID. And today, Gallup finds GOP identification at an all-time high.
“By 46 percent to 41 percent, Americans say the Republican Party is better able than the Democratic Party to address what they think is the most important problem facing the country,” Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones wrote. “The top issues Americans currently name as the most important are ones that tend to favor the GOP, including the economy (24 percent), immigration (22 percent), the government (17 percent) and inflation (15 percent).”
Among the issues identified, the economy (24%), immigration (22%), and government (17%) are at the forefront of voters’ concerns— all areas in which Republicans hold the upper hand.
Drilling down into the poll’s questions sees a huge GOP advantage, all of which bodes well for the GOP in November.
In its report on the survey, Gallup wrote:
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is currently at -28, indicating Americans’ attitudes about the economy are negative, on balance. The rating is derived from the 22% of Americans describing current economic conditions as “excellent” or “good” versus the 48% saying they are “poor,” and the 32% believing the economy is “getting better” versus the 62% saying it is “getting worse.”
In incumbent election years, a -28 economic confidence score would be closer to what it has typically been in losing (1992, 2008, 2016) rather than winning (1996, 2004, 2012) years for the president’s party. In 2020, Americans’ evaluations were essentially neutral when Donald Trump lost, though other incumbent presidents won when there were similar levels of economic confidence.
Finally, it should be remembered that Gallup is a left-leaning polling firm. So, the real numbers are probably even more favorable to the GOP.
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