We keep hearing it from the progressive media, oh those democrats are closing the gap. Even a chastened Robert Gibbs has changed his tune, he now predicts that the Democratic party will retain control of the house. While in some cases Senate races seem to be tightening up a bit, all signs point to the Democratic Party facing absolute carnage in the House of Representatives. And worse (for them) it seems as if prospects are deteriorating rather than improving for the President’s party.
The latest indication of a Democratic disaster comes from Charlie Cook, one of the most respected of political prognosticators. Today Cook’s firm changed his rating for 20 different house races, three of moved toward a more favorable rating for the Democratic Candidate (in blue) the other 17 moved closer to the GOP corner (in red).
House Editor David Wasserman notes, “With today’s changes, there are now 23 Democratic seats in the Lean Republican and Likely Republican columns, and just three Republican seats in the Lean Democratic column. Even if Democrats were to defy the historical odds and win a bare majority of the 47 seats in the Toss Up column, they would fall several seats short of holding the House.”
In the list below, the incumbent’s name is in parenthesis:
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AZ-03: OPEN (Shadegg) Likely R to Lean R
FL-12: OPEN (Putnam) Likely R to Lean R
IL-10: OPEN (Kirk) Toss Up to Lean D
AZ-07: Raul Grijalva (D) Likely D to Toss Up
FL-22: Ron Klein (D) Lean D to Toss Up
IN-02: Joe Donnelly (D) Lean D to Toss Up
IA-01: Bruce Braley (D) Likely D to Lean D
IA-02: Dave Loebsack (D) Likely D to Lean D
KS-03: OPEN (Moore) Lean R to Likely R
MA-10: OPEN (Delahunt) Lean D to Toss Up
MN-08: Jim Oberstar (D) Likely D to Lean D
MO-03: Russ Carnahan (D) Likely D to Lean D
MO-04: Ike Skelton (D) Lean D to Toss Up
MS-04: Gene Taylor (D) Lean D to Toss Up
NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter (D) Toss Up to Lean R
NY-20: Scott Murphy (D) Lean D to Toss Up
NY-22: Maurice Hinchey (D) Likely D to Lean D
OH-06: Charlie Wilson (D) Lean D to Toss Up
PA-04: Jason Altmire (D) Likely D to Lean D
TN-04: Lincoln Davis (D) Lean D to Toss Up
This is on top of yesterday’s Gallup news that also seems to dispel the notion of a Democratic Party comeback:
Gallup’s tracking of the generic ballot for Congress finds Republicans leading Democrats by 5 percentage points among registered voters, 48% to 43%, and by 11- and 17-point margins among likely voters, depending on turnout. This is the third consecutive week the Republicans have led on the measure among registered voters, after two weeks in September when the parties were about tied.
For Republicans to lead, or even be at parity with Democrats, on the generic congressional ballot indicates they are in a good position to win a majority of House seats in the upcoming elections. This is because of Republicans’ typical advantage in voter turnout, which in recent years has given that party an average five-point boost in support on Election Day.
If the elections were held today and roughly 40% of voters turned out — a rate typical in recent years — Gallup’s Oct. 7-17 polling suggests Republicans would win 56% of the vote — 8 points greater than their support from registered voters, and 17 points ahead of Democrats, at 39%. If turnout is significantly higher, Republicans would receive 53% of the vote (a 5-point improvement over their registered-voter figure), and the Democrats, 42%.
The race to restore liberty to the American people by defeating the progressive movement is by no means over. What this news does mean is should we continue to promote those candidates that believe in freedom, November 2nd will be a very good day for America.