Who says that President Obama hasn’t achieved anything in the past year. Just before he took office in January, the President’s Democratic party had a six point 42%-36% lead in Rasmussen’s Generic Congressional Ballot, today Rasmussen has the GOP with an 8 point 44%-36% lead, a trend which, if it continues spells bad news for the President’s party a little more than ten months from now. Most impressive is that amongst the key group of political independents the GOP has a 24 point 43% to 19% margin.
The new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 44% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 36% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. Support for GOP candidates held steady over the past week, but support for Democrats slipped by a point.
Perhaps this helps to explain why Parker Griffith, a freshman congressman from northern Alabama, is expected to announce today that he is switching parties. Elected as a Democrat, he is switching to the GOP because of unhappiness with national Democratic policies. Several other Democratic congressmen in swing districts have announced that they will not seek reelection next year.
Men prefer GOP candidates by 19 points over Democrats, while women are evenly divided between the two.
The GOP has held the lead on the ballot for over four months now. But since early November, as the President’s Obamacare plans have advanced through Congress. the Republican lead has steadily increased.
Since late June, support for Republican candidates on the Generic Ballot has ranged from 41% to 44%, while support for Democrats has run from 36% to 40%. Looking back a year ago, the two parties were in a much different place. Throughout the fall and winter of 2008, support for Democratic congressional candidates ranged from 42% to 47%. Republican support ranged from 37% to 41%.
If a Tea Party candidate is in the race, the picture changes dramatically. A separate, three-way Generic Ballot test finds that Democrats attract 36% of the vote, while the Tea Party candidate picks up 23% and Republicans finish third at 18%. Another 22% are undecided.
In November, the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats fell to a four-year low but is still more than the number who call themselves Republicans.
Seventy-three percent (73%) of Republican voters believe their party’s congressional leaders are out of touch with the party base. By contrast, a plurality (47%) of Democratic voters says their congressmen agree with them ideologically.
Over the past week, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid found a way to collect 60 votes and move health care reform legislation forward in the U.S. Senate. However, his negotiating and the ongoing debate did nothing to improve public opinion of the legislation. Forty-one percent (41%) of voters nationwide favor the bill, and 55% are opposed.
Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters nationwide say that it would be better to pass no health care reform bill this year instead of passing the plan currently being considered by Congress.
Fifty-one percent (51%) say America’s economic problems are due to the recession which began under President Bush. Forty-one percent (41%) put more blame on Obama’s policies.
Sixty-six percent (66%) of voters prefer a smaller government with fewer services and lower taxes over a more active government with more services and higher taxes, the second highest finding of the year.
This all signals a Democratic party that is severely out of touch with the American People. And if they don’t start listening soon, they will be out of touch with their offices.