Gallup has just released it’s final generic ballot preference survey (Generic Ballot). The survey suggest that any thought of a Democratic Party comeback is a pipe dream. Republicans hold a 15 point spread vs a 14 point spread a week ago and a 17 point spread two weeks ago. It predicts a 45% turnout; slightly higher than recent historic trends. Gallup says if this holds up, the Republicans’ current voting model suggests that a 60 seat pickup is now the floor for the House, not the ceiling.
The results are from Gallup’s Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot — depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup’s analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.
Republicans’ 15-point lead among likely voters contrasts with their 4-point lead, 48% to 44%, among registered voters, highlighting the importance of higher GOP turnout to the election outcome. This wide difference between the GOP’s margin among registered voters and its margin among likely voters is similar to the 2002 midterms, in which Democrats led by 5 points among all registered voters in Gallup’s final pre-election poll, while Republicans led by 6 points among likely voters — an 11-point gain.
Gallup says the +64 prediction made by Aqua Budda and yours truly may have been conservative.
Gallup’s historical model suggests that a party needs at least a two-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. The Republicans’ current likely voter margin suggests that this scenario is highly probable, making the question of interest this election not whether the GOP will win the majority, but by how much. Taking Gallup’s final survey’s margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible.
Gallup says the 15% GOP advantage is the largest it has ever seen in its polling history.
This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained.
In the end all of this is going to come down to one thing… turnout. If the GOP can rouse a strong turnout then they will be able to win the House, perhaps even at record numbers.
Republicans’ turnout advantage is highlighted by two key questions used as part of Gallup’s likely voter model. One asks Americans how much thought they have given to the upcoming elections; the other asks those who say they plan to vote how certain they are about voting.
The Oct. 28-31 poll finds that nationally, 75% of Republicans and independents who lean Republican are “absolutely certain” they will vote in the 2010 midterms, compared with 68% of Democrats. While these figures are not the only indicator of relative turnout strength — this is just one question in Gallup’s seven-item likely voter model — the record-high seven-point gap between the parties is strongly indicative of a relative surge in GOP turnout.
Similarly, 68% of Republicans and Republican leaners say they have given quite a lot of or some thought to the elections. This compares with 54% of Democrats giving the same amount of thought to the elections, resulting in a 14-point difference between the parties. That gap is greater than any Gallup has seen since and including the 1994 midterms.
The bottom line is that victory is there waiting for the GOP, providing that they can get out the vote. If they can’t, well then, it will be another two years of the progressive Democrats being able to shove their tyrannical programs down the throats of the American people.