OK I know that some of you are about to call me a RINO, others will say that I have always been in bed with Mitt Romney. The truth is I endorsed Rick Santorum in February and I still think he would be the best president for this country. But the fact my number one objective is to make sure Barack Obama is not reelected, and looking at the math there is no way Santorum can win.
Right now Real Clear Politics has the delegate tally as
Romney has won 53% of the delegates so far. The number of delegates needed to win is 1,144 meaning the former Mass. Governor needs 648 out of the remaining 1289 delegates to win (50%). The former Pennsylvania Senator needs 908 (70%) of the remaining delegates to win. The only way for Gingrich to win is if Romney and Santorum are caught naked in bed with a prostitute …..and each other.
Now take a look at the remaining states
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With the exception of Texas and Pennsylvania Romney’s strength is in the bigger North East states. Most of those are “winner take all.”
Romney will most certainly win these (more liberal) “winner take all” primaries giving him another 359 delegates bring his total to 854 and needing only 31 % of the remaining 931 delegates.
Say Romney gets 45% in these states (I believe he will get higher than that in NY, CT and RI), Romney will get 108 of those delegates. Bringing his total to 962 needing 182 for the nomination and only 26% of the remaining 62.
Romney is going to get CREAMED it Pennsylvania and Texas, but even if he only gets 12% of the vote he gets another 27 delegates leaving him only 155 short of the mark and 465 up for grabs.
The point is there is no way that Romney who has won 53% of the delegates to date, cannot win 1/3 of the 465 delegates above (the states are color coded for Red States, Blue and Purple.
This long campaign season is going to be over by June. We have had some great interactions, and dialogue but the last few weeks have been nothing but nastiness (and yes much of it from Romney).
I cannot see a path for a Rick Santorum victory. We need to keep our eyes on the real goal, voting Barack Obama into retirement. Its time to end the nastiness, stop creating campaign ads for Obama and focus on the real goal.
Rick Santorum would still be the better choice, but we need to face facts “the fat lady is singing.