In the final weeks leading up to the midterm elections of 2022, the Democrat’s latest desperate ploy has been to shift the focus of the contest as a whole in order to foment some sort of enthusiasm for their cause.
Specifically, the left is pushing back against concerns about the economy (which have dominated nearly every poll taken regarding the important issues facing America today), in order to suggest falsely that “abortion” is the key issue on the minds of the American voter. This is thanks to the fact that the White House seems to have exactly zero ability to get this fiscal fracas under control.
In other words: If the 2022 election is a referendum on Biden’s failures, then a “red wave” will crash into the Capitol.
Economists are now delivering more bad news for Biden and the Democrats, however, as the forecast for a potential economic recession has now reached literal certainty.
A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.
The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.
The President has suggested a sunnier reality of late but will now be forced to come to terms with his failures.
The forecast will be unwelcome news for Biden, who has repeatedly said the US will avoid a recession and that any downturn would be “very slight,” as he seeks to reassure Americans the economy is on solid footing under his administration.
But tightening financial conditions, persistent inflation and expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve pressing ahead with rate hikes are raising the risk of a contraction.
Economic trouble could spell big trouble for the Democrats in the coming weeks and months, and this latest research will have the left scrambling.
Cross-posted with Flag and Cross
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