Yesterday George P. Bush the eldest son of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush told ABC News’ Jonathan Karl that his father , will “more than likely” run for president in 2016.

“I think it’s actually, I think it’s more than likely that he’s giving this a serious thought in moving forward,” George P. Bush told Karl aboard his campaign bus in College Station, Texas.

“More than likely that he’ll run?” Karl asked.

“That he’ll run,” Bush said. “If you had asked me a few years back, I would’ve said it was less likely.”

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While a Bush candidacy might make the establishment Republicans jump for joy, should he get the nomination it would guarantee that the next President will be Hillary Clinton. While Bush may be a formidable candidate his presence at the top of the ticket will cause the conservative wing of the party to ‘sit on their hands” and stay home come election day.

A late September Gallup Poll reveals that Tea Party Republicans  (about 18% of U.S.) are the most motivated to vote in the upcoming midterms.

In other words if the GOP wins the Senate in eight days, a big part of that win may be traced to the the motivation of the conservative, Tea Party Republicans.

Three major issues make Jeb Bush a pariah to the Tea Party base of the GOP; his support of the Common Core education system, support of amnesty for illegal aliens, and his support of Tax increases. A candidate may overcome one or maybe two of those issues but it will be almost impossible for him to overcome all three.

I don’t see anyway that conservative Republicans will vote for Hillary Clinton, however should Bush get the GOP nomination it will depress the GOP vote as many conservatives will simply stay home, or even worse it may lead to the nomination of a strong conservative third party candidate, splitting the GOP for years to come.

The establishment wing of the GOP is looking for a more moderate candidate, but they need to be careful that any “moderate” they support  unites rather than splits the party.  Jeb Bush will divide the party and give the Democrats the White House for eight more years.