If Senator Obama wins New Hampshire, he will not be anywhere NEAR close to the Democratic nomination but it could be the start of the bandwagon leaving town, and a Mortal Blow to the hopes of NY’s Junior Senator Hillary Clinton. Granted she still has a huge lead on a national basis, but momentum plays a big role in primary politics.
According to Politico her team is desperately searching for something that will work in the few days before New Hampshire. They have run out of time to use their favored tactic the “low road”:
The senator’s aides concluded that negative advertising would not work in the compressed time frame between Iowa and New Hampshire, adding to their worries about their ability to change a media and political environment that is embracing Obama as a historic figure. The campaign also worries that fallout from an all-out attack on Obama could harm Clinton’s plans to turn the Democratic race into a grueling marathon.
“You can’t launch a negative ad and expect that it’s going to be effective over a three-day period,” said a Democratic strategist familiar with the campaign’s thinking. “And the blowback could be significant.”
Clinton Aids are still “blown away by the size of the Obama turn-out in Iowa
But Clinton advisers also fear the New Hampshire strategy is a stop-gap measure, with a harsher approach likely if she loses New Hampshire. Conversations with campaign officials make it clear they feel besieged, and unsure how to sap Obama’s momentum.
In Iowa, Clinton aides have said she drew levels of support that might have been enough to win in an ordinary year, but she was swamped in the stunning turnout produced by Obama’s popularity among young voters. While taking pains to insist in public that New Hampshire’s turnout model is very different from Iowa’s, Clinton’s aides say privately that they still fear a similar wave on Tuesday.
“It’s still possible to win or take a close second in New Hampshire, but if the turnout even begins to mirror what happened in Iowa, all bets are off,” said a Clinton adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Beyond that, the African-American Community believe that Obama may be the “real thing and are moving their support away from Clinton in big numbers
The adviser added that the campaign has come to accept another reality of the early process, which is that African-American voters are convinced that Obama is viable and shifting rapidly in his direction.
“We’re going to lose South Carolina,” he said.
Clinton officials have urged reporters to think ahead to Feb. 5, Super Tuesday, when she expects to do well in New York, California, New Jersey and Arkansas.
However, a loss in New Hampshire, coupled with Obama’s presumed strength in South Carolina, could leave Clinton without a safe harbor to catch her breath before Feb. 5. Her aides also are pessimistic about winning the support of the powerful Culinary Workers union in Nevada — a crucial force in the state’s Jan. 19 caucuses — which has said it will announce its endorsement the day after the New Hampshire primary. Source:Hillary advisers fear N.H. loss
Maybe its none of the above—just maybe its that people are getting tired of the same old Clinton politics. According to Real Clear Politics summary of polling data, her numbers dived after Iowa