Approximately 40-48 hours from now, the results of the 2010 Mid-Term election will be clear. The Republican party will have near historic gains in the house and may very well win control of the Senate. The size of this political tsunami poses a great danger to the GOP, they may very well misinterpret their victory tomorrow just as much as the Democratic Progressives misinterpreted their victory in 2008.
The Democratic party win two years ago had as much to do with voter “anger” as this years vote. Probably the thing that was most convincing about candidate Barack Obama, was that he was a believable “Washington DC outsider.” His speeches promising a new way of doing things, fighting politics as usual and making those tough decisions that the American people want him to do, was appealing to voters. Of course, it didn’t take long for Americans to see that his new way of doing things was just the same old Chicago-style politics, his fighting politics as usual was hiring every ex-Clinton appointee that he could dig up and supplement them with fringe progressives and his way of listening to what the American people wanted was to push through programs they didn’t want like TARP 2, The government buy out of GM and Chrysler, Cap and Trade and of course Obamacare. And when it became obvious the stimulus plan wasn’t working, America wanted the unspent dollars used to bring down the debt, once again the will of the people was ignored.
To be clear the anticipated GOP victory tomorrow is not a swing to the Republican Party as much as it is a swing against Washington politics as usual. The Democrats happen to be the party in power and the GOP happens to be benefiting from the fact that they are the party out of power.
As Scott Rasmussen said in today’s WSJ
Central to the Democrats’ electoral woes was the debate on health-care reform. From the moment in May 2009 when the Congressional Budget Office announced that the president’s plan would cost a trillion dollars, most voters opposed it. Today 53% want to repeal it. Opposition was always more intense than support, and opposition was especially high among senior citizens, who vote in high numbers in midterm elections.
Rather than acknowledging the public concern by passing a smaller and more popular plan, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and President Obama insisted on passing the proposed legislation by any means possible.
As a result, Democrats face massive losses in tomorrow’s midterm election. Based upon our generic ballot polling and an analysis of individual races, we project that Nancy Pelosi’s party will likely lose 55 or more seats in the House, putting the GOP firmly in the majority. Republicans will also win at least 25 of the 37 Senate elections. While the most likely outcome is that Republicans end up with 48 or 49 Senate seats,Democrats will need to win close races in West Virginia, Washington and California to protect their majority.
There will also be a lot more Republican governors in office come January. It looks like six heartland states stretching from Pennsylvania to Iowa will trade a Democratic governor for a Republican one. A common theme in all the races is that white, working-class Democrats who tended to vote for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama in 2008 are prepared to vote for Republicans.
But none of this means that Republicans are winning. The reality is that voters in 2010 are doing the same thing they did in 2006 and 2008: They are voting against the party in power.
Rasmussen points out that the same thing happened in the Clinton and Bush Administrations and reflects a rejection of both major political parties.
More precisely, it is a rejection of a bipartisan political elite that’s lost touch with the people they are supposed to serve. Based on our polling, 51% now see Democrats as the party of big government and nearly as many see Republicans as the party of big business. That leaves no party left to represent the American people.
That is the “promise” of the grass roots tea party movement. If the Republican party wishes to maintain and build upon the victory projected for tomorrow they better understand why they won. Not because they are the GOP but because they are promising what the American people are demanding, smaller government, a cut in government spending, a walk-back of the progressive policies shoved down our throats during the past two years and most importantly, listen to the American people rather than telling us what we should think. If they don’t, 2012 may see political tsunami in a different direction.