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So this afternoon I posted a thoughtful analysis of why Obama might be picking Evan Bayh as his VP pick. Now by all indications, I was wrong now everyone is reporting that Bayh and Kaine have been told they aren’t getting the job, and by all indications the pick will be Joe Biden. What does Biden have that Bayh doesn’t? Well for one thing he has a secret service detail heading to his house tonight….

U.S. Secret Service on Way to Biden’s House; Kaine and Bayh Told Nope on Veep
August 22, 2008 The United States Secret Service has dispatched a protective detail to assume the immediate protection of Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del., a source tells ABC News, indicating in all likelihood that Biden has been officially notified that Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, has selected him to be his running mate. Sources also tell ABC News that two others said to be finalists for the position of Obama’s running mate — Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., and Virginia Gov Tim Kaine — have been told they have not been selected to be Obama’s running mate. Kaine flew to Denver earlier today, is in Denver tonight and has no plans to leave in the next 24 hours. Bayh is at his Washington, DC, home with his family. Biden was last seen minutes ago at his Wilmington estate where his extended brood is gathering. The Obama campaign would not comment, but Obama mentioned Biden twice in speeches on the trail this week, both times heralding his legislative leadersip in East Asia. At the VFW convention in Orlando, Florida, on Tuesday, Obama said, “we must help Georgia rebuild that which has been destroyed. That is why I’m proud to join my friend, Senator Joe Biden, in calling for an additional $1 billion in reconstruction assistance for the people of Georgia.” And in Chesapeake, Virginia, Friday night, Obama heralded Biden’s efforts to provide economic assistance to Afghanistan. “I joined with people like Joe Biden to increase a billion dollars of investment,” he said. — ABC News’ Ann Compton, Matt Jaffe, Jay Shaylor, and Jake Tapper

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