Today I was proven wrong(its not the first time nor will it be the last). Jim Geraghty posted of a source who ..tells me that the most recent internal poll of the Scott Brown campaign shows the Republican winning by… 11 percentage points. I’m getting the sense that the folks hearing this are almost a little incredulous, but it seems every demographic and key group is breaking to Brown in the past day or two. For weeks, Brown and everyone around him has said they will campaign and work as if they’re 30 percentage points down. But it seems like the campaign has been one Coakley stumble after another, and you figure that would eventually start effecting the numbers. According to that measure, it’s starting to break heavily in Brown’s direction… but we’ll have to see what the final few days bring.
Earlier today I received an email from a contact who works for a Political PR/Marketing firm in DC who said:
In a new poll released by Pajamas Media, Republican Scott Brown is leading Democrat Martha Coakley by 15.4%. [link: http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2010/01/14/massachusetts-shocker-brown-up-15-in-pajamas-mediacrosstarget-poll/ ]
This poll was conducted by CrossTarget – an Alexandria, VA survey research firm. These findings are based on interviews with nine hundred and forty six (966) likely voters in the Massachusetts special election which were completed on January 14, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.19 %.
I answered that I didn’t feel comfortable publishing this poll because it was so “out of whack” from other polls that showed Brown dead even, or at most with a 4% lead. My friend answered Yes it does seem to be an outlier, but this matches the campaign’s internal polling and polls more Democrats than Republicans.
Without specifics, I just didn’t feel comfortable reporting on the internal poll or the PJM poll. Now that Jim Geraghty has revealed the specifics of Brown’s internals, I now feel comfortable doing it also….a little late and a little red faced, but I am very happy to be proven wrong, and announce that Scott Brown Opens Up Double Digit Lead. Here’s hoping that the next four days sees his lead grow.