Quinnipiac released its latest Wednesday morning, which is also the first poll taken entirely after the CNBC debate. This Quinnipiac national poll shows major changes since their last survey taken toward the end of September (9/17-21).
Over all it seems as if the race is consolidating to four candidates, Trump, Carson, Rubio, and Cruz. The biggest gains in the chart below were seen by Ben Carson and Ted Cruz +6%, and Marco Rubio+5%. Jeb Bush took a major hit -6% and seems dangerously close to the “happy hour debate” category.
The biggest drop was seen by Carly Fiorina-9%. Both Kaisich and Christie rest at 3% since the previous poll, but quite frankly all of the candidates below Cruz should be considering taking themselves out of the race.
Among Republicans, 25 percent of voters say they “would definitely not support” Trump, with 23 percent who would not back Bush.
Clinton gets 53 percent of Democrats, with 35 percent for Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, with 9 percent undecided and 44 percent who might change their mind.
Only 8 percent of Democrats say they “would definitely not support” Clinton.
Clinton’s traditional lead among women evaporates as American voters pick Carson over the Democrat 50 – 40 percent. Women go 45 percent for Carson and 44 percent for Clinton, while men back the Republican 55 – 35 percent.
In other matchups with GOP contenders, Clinton gets 46 percent to Trump’s 43 percent; Rubio tops Clinton 46 – 41 percent; Cruz gets 46 percent to Clinton’s 43 percent;
New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie tops Clinton 46 – 41 percent.
Clinton, Trump, and Bush have issues in the qualitative categories:
Bush has the worst net favorability rating of any candidate, a negative 25 – 58 percent, while Trump gets a negative 37 – 56 percent and Clinton gets a negative 42 – 52 percent. Other favorability ratings are; 49 – 25 percent for Carson; 39 – 25 percent for Rubio; and 35 – 32 percent for Cruz.
Clinton has the lowest rating for honesty as American voters say 60 – 36 percent she is not honest and trustworthy. Trump is not honest and trustworthy, voters say 58 – 38 percent.
If things don’t change pretty soon after the Fox Business debate next week, look for Jeb Bush to make his way to the exit. As for the candidates below Bush, to be honest it’s hard to understand how they are still getting financial support. Not only have their numbers been low, but there has been little, if any growth. Of course two of the also-ran candidates cannot drop out yet, former NY Gov. Pataki who will never be POTUS but controls the all important lousy comb-over vote, and Lindsey Graham who doesn’t use the rest room without permission from John McCain.
The first primary is three months away and election day is a year away so expect to see radical changes in these numbers, however don’t expect growth below the top four or five candidates.