If my Mom of blessed memory were still alive, she would tell me to run
out to the store and purchase heavy sweaters and a extra warm winter
coat. In fact after reading this story she would issue a major Jewish
Mother Sweater Alert all because there is new evidence that the Earth
may be heading toward an ice age (please stop crying Mr. Gore).
We last covered this topic in September of 2013, but in the nine months since that post, many more scientists have predicted the Earth is not warming—-it’s cooling.
Dr. David Evans Australian Scientist predicts a sharp global cooling in the near future, he wrote in June 2014:
The reason for the [coming] cooling is the dramatic fall in solar radiation that started around 2004.
There have been three big, steep falls in solar radiation in the last 400 years.
The first was in the 1600s. It led to the depths of the Little Ice Age, and the Maunder Minimum. This was the coldest period during the last 400 years. There used to be fairs on the ice in the Thames River in London, because it would freeze over for weeks at a time.
The second fall is around the time of Napoleon and it preceded the second coldest period in the last 400 years, called the Dalton Minimum.
The third fall occurred recently, starting in about 2004. This recent fall is as big as the fall in Napoleon’s time, almost as large as the fall in the 1600s, and it seems to be steeper than either of those falls. But the temperature hasn’t fallen … yet. The cooling is most likely to begin in 2017.
The delay could be as much as 20 years, in which case the drop could be as late as 2024. Or it could occur as soon as 2014. An El Nino or La Nina could affect the timing too. At this stage, we don’t know. But by the end of 2018 seems fairly likely.
Dr. Evans paper agrees directionally with one published by solar physicist Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov who predicted in Dec. 2013 the current lull in solar activity will continue and lead to a new Little Ice Age within the next 30 years.
Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov who heads Russia’s prestigious Pulkovo Observatory in St. Petersburg predicts that: “after the maximum of solar Cycle-24, from approximately 2014, we can expect the start of the next bicentennial cycle of deep cooling with a Little Ice Age in 2055 plus or minus 11 years” (the 19th to occur in the past 7,500 years).
Dr. Abdussamatov points out that Earth has experienced such occurrences five times over the last 1,000 years, and that: “A global freeze will come about regardless of whether or not industrialized countries put a cap on their greenhouse gas emissions. The common view of Man’s industrial activity is a deciding factor in global warming has emerged from a misinterpretation of cause and effect.”
A paper published in 2012 but not appearing on the web until early June 2014 in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
finds long solar cycles predict lower temperatures during the following
A lag of 11 years [the average solar cycle length] is
found to provide maximum correlation between solar cycle length and
temperature. On the basis of the long sunspot cycle of the last solar
cycle 23, the authors predict an average temperature decrease of 1C over
the current solar cycle 24 from 2009-2020 for certain locations.
The authors also find “solar activity may have contributed 40% or more to the last century temperature increase” and “For
3 North Atlantic stations we get 63–72% solar contribution [to the
temperature increase of the past 150 years]. This points to the Atlantic
currents as reinforcing a solar signal.”
Horst-Joachin Luedecke and Carl-Otto Weiss, German Scientists who work at the European Institute for Climate and Energy, say that “two naturally occurring climate cycles will combine to lower global temperatures during the next century.”
They added, “by the year 2100, temperatures on this planet will plunge to levels seen at the end of the ‘Little Ice Age’ in 1870.”
These researchers used historical data detailing temperatures as well as cave stalagmites to show a recurring 200-year solar cycle called the DeVries Cycle.
They likewise featured into their studies a well-established 65-year Atlantic and Pacific Ocean oscillation cycle of warming that has occurred since 1870 and will soon shift to a much cooler cycle of sea-surface temperatures, in other words, more chilly ‘La Ninas’ and less warm ‘El Ninos.’
Solar activity is one area of evidence that scientists have used for decades in predicting both global warming and global cooling. Low sunspot activity has been linked to the ‘Little Ice Age’ between 1350 and 1870. The recent warmer periods have been associated with much higher than normal solar activity.
But, despite the current sunspot ‘maxima’ phase, which has been weaker than normal, we’ve seen a series of very harsh winter seasons in both hemispheres in the past several years, especially in Europe and Asia.
Now add on top of the above the fact that the Earth hasn’t warmed in almost 18 years, the US has seen temperatures drop for the past 80 years, and the Antarctic has set a new record for sea ice, give a strong indication than Mother Nature doesn’t believe that global warming is settled science.
When I took Earth Science as a freshman in college during the 1970s, we were
taught that because of historic global cycles most scientists believed
the Earth was likely heading for a cooling period, possibly even an ice
age. Many scientists today believe that the lack of solar activity means
what the Earth Science professor taught is coming to fruition.
At the very least, the warmists’ claim that global warming is settled science is a crock of yellow ice. Truth is the science is very much unsettled and claims that global warming is nothing but a scare is perfectly valid.
In the meantime, while the science is being settled, maybe you should buy warm gloves and a hat with that new winter coat, it will make your mother happy.