Liberal polling firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) is sounding the alarm, Barack Obama is in trouble.
“There’s a very good chance Barack Obama would lose if he had to stand for reelection today,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This is his worst poll standing in a long time and he really needs the economy to start turning around.”
Overall Obama’s by a 48%-46% margin voters disapprove of the President’s performance, but that is probably the best set of numbers in the study. More Democrats are unhappy with the President’s performance (16%), than Republicans who approve of him (10%). I guess that means 10% of GOP voters have had no access to any media during the past two and a half years. The number that should be be most disturbing to the Obama-fans is the independent voters who disapprove of him by a margin of 49%-44%.
Now put those numbers in the context of this Jim Geraghty report which analyzed PPP and found some conflicts of interest, lack of transparency and Democratic-skewed methodology. In other words things could be even worse than the Daily Kos contractor, PPP is reporting.
PPP is also reporting that Mitt Romney has pulled into a tie with the President at 45%.
He leads the President by 9 points with independents at 46-37. And he earns more crossover support, getting 13% of the Democratic vote while only 8% of Republicans are behind Obama.
The other candidates are far behind Romney, but that is probably due to a lack of recognition rather than an understanding/disagreement with their policy.
Gallup is also showing a drop in support for Obama, the three-day rolling average of presidential approval reflected that Obama’s approval dropped to 42%, to put that into perspective one month ago that approval rating was at 49%.
Since it is a three day average, and the first day a drop has been detected, tomorrow’s Gallup numbers for Obama may be even worse.
Rasmussen’s three-day average reflects a similar drop with the President’s disapproval at 54% vs 44% approval.
What is forcing Obama’s numbers down? That could be best answered with the now-famous phrase, “Its the economy stupid!” and Americans are not very optimistic about the future:
Twenty-one percent (21%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, July 17. This matches the lowest level measured of Obama’s presidency and is also the lowest finding in nearly three months of weekly tracking.
Seventy-one percent (71%) of voters say the country is heading down the wrong track, the highest level of pessimism measured since mid-April. This finding has ranged from 57% to 72% since January 2009.
Certainly these numbers show that Americans are growing frustrated with Barack Obama’s brand of change and if the election were held today he would be in severe trouble. But the election won’t be held today or for another year and a half, a lot can happen in that time period.