For some reason the IBD/TIPP poll is not reported as often as some of the others, but in my experience they have been amongst the more accurate of political polls. The latest IBD/TIPP report contains bad news for President Obama. By a 51-41% Americans want someone new to run the country.
A more ominous indicator of the President’s chances is his standing amongst the Independents. They were key to getting him elected in 2008, but no they want somebody else to sit in the Oval Office by a margin of 54%-36%.
As you might have expected, the economy is the big issue dragging Obama down. According to the poll, half of Americans give Obama poor or unacceptable marks in creating jobs and economic growth vs. 24% who say he’s doing well, with independents its 51%-18% and 33% of them give him an “F” vs. just 2% who give an “A” (the report doesn’t mention this but I assume that 2% represents independent voters who just woke up from a 3-year-long coma).
“Independents, the unbiased arbiters, are disappointed. They have been hurt badly with job losses. They don’t see the president’s policies improving the economy, said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducted the poll.
Karlyn Bowman, polling analyst for the conservative American Enterprise Institute, says those numbers are daunting for any candidate, let alone an incumbent.
“He has a 36% rating among independents, 38% among whites. Those numbers have to improve for him to be re-elected,” she said.
More than a year after the White House and Democrats declared a “recovery summer,” the public has yet to see an improvement. By 42%-16%, people expect economic conditions to get worse over the next six months. Another 39% foresee no change.
Among independents, 48% expect conditions to worsen vs. 12% seeing improvement.
Not all the news is bad for the incumbent President, 70% of Americans “like Obama personally,” they just want him out of office so he can have more time on his hands to ‘make new friends”