While the Network exit polls cannot predict winners as of yet, the exit polls are indicating that the GOP blowout may be bigger than expected. At this writing only a handful of states have closed. But Turnout nationally seems to be favoring the more conservative candidates.
- Democrats vs. Republicans The exit polls are showing that the turn out difference between Democrats and Republicans is very small, much smaller than in previous elections. A good sign for the GOP as they are usually out numbered by the Democrats.
- Independents (normal)– Independents tend to be less engaged politically; they’ve made up a smaller share of the turnout, 25 to 29 percent of voters, in recent past elections. Preliminary exit poll results indicate about the customary level of turnout by independents, but those independents are swinging AWAY from the Democrats.
- Conservatives (high) – Self-described conservatives peaked at 37 percent of all voters in the 1994 House elections in which the Republicans gained control of Congress. Preliminary exit poll results indicate a high level of turnout by conservatives. Some have described it as a record high.
- African-Americans (low)- In 2008 they represented about 14% of the vote, so far today that number is only 10%
- Young Voters (low) – Young voters customarily turn out in much smaller numbers in midterm elections; preliminary pre-election polls indicate low turnout in this group. In 2008 they represented 18% of the vote, tonight so far, they represent only about 9%
- 1st Time Voters (low)– Customarily around 10 percent of the electorate. Their turnout was low in preliminary exit poll results.
Jim Geraghty is reporting a Major Bloodbath
Indicator Number One: I am told that one Democratic strategist, helping a television network with Election Night analysis, just declared that the Democrats were experiencing something on par with mass murder. The GOP counterpart looked at the same numbers and concluded the Democrats are, so far, not getting the urban turnout they need; suburban and rural areas are seeing big turnouts.
Indicator Number Two: One Republican who is seeing early indicators in Florida says, “if this holds, we win everything.”