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A poll conducted by the Merriman River Group (MRG) for online newspaper InsideMedford indicates that Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 51– 41% for Tuesday’s Mass. special election. Independant candidate Joe Kennedy gets 2% support, and 6% of voters are not sure.

Brown and Coakley both have most of their supporters locked in. 98% of both candidate’s supporters say they are definitely or probably going to vote for their candidate.

This is the third poll released since Friday showing the Republican Scott Brown winning by double digit percentage points. One of those polls, the PJM poll is due to release and update at midnight tonight. There are also polls showing a smaller lead or even a Democratic Coakley lead but all of them show the vote trending toward Scott Brown. In fact, when you look at the chart below (from pollster) showing the trend of the  average aggregate of all the polls, it is truly amazing the way the bottom has fallen out of the Democrat’s numbers since mid -December.

According to the Medford Poll:

….nearly all of Coakley’s supporters approve of President Obama’s job performance, while three-quarters of Brown’s supporters disapprove.

Its interesting that one quarter of Browns voters approve of Obama, which shows the disapproval of Coakley.

47% of Brown’s supporters say that taxes, jobs, and the economy represent the most important issue to them in this race, while half of Coakley’s supporters say that healthcare reform is most important to them. Undecided voters are nearly evenly split between the two issues—40% say they’re most concerned with taxes, jobs, and the economy with 37% saying that healthcare reform that most concerns them. “For Coakley to have a chance, she needs to convince voters that the Democratic party’s agenda for the economy is the right one, and she needs to do it fast,” said MRG’s executive director, Matt Fitch.

Coakley’s recent Anti-Brown efforts based on abortion seem to have been wasted. Only 8% of Brown’s supporters and 5% of Coakley’s supporters say abortion the most important issue to them.

The endorsement in Medford on January 7 of Martha Coakley by members of Senator Ted Kennedy’s family appears to have had little effect on most voters and to have backfired with others. 55% said that it was not important to them, but 27% said it made them less likely to vote for Coakley, while only 18% said it made them more likely to vote for her. As for undecided voters, more than two-thirds said the endorsement was not important. “The Kennedy family endorsement seems to have hurt more than it helped Coakley, despite the popularity of the Kennedys in the state and in Medford,” said Allison Goldsberry, Editor of

What seems to tip the race in Brown’s favor most is his popularity among Moderates, Independents, and men, and Coakley’s lack of an advantage among women. Brown nearly doubles Coakley’s total among Moderates, 62% – 32%, and has an even bigger margin among Independents, 64% – 26%. There’s also a one-way gender effect that favors Brown, who holds a nearly two-to-one lead over Coakley among men while women are split evenly between the two candidates. Brown does best among white voters, while Coakley leads among non-whites, suggesting that minority turnout may play a crucial role on election day. Brown is also leading among all age groups.

Perhaps the most disturbing image about the campaign was made today by Congressman Barney Frank:

Earlier, as dignitaries arrived at the Cabot Center, U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, when asked whether Coakley’s recent dip in the polls was related to sentiments about President Obama, quipped, “President Obama is not Martha Coakley in drag.”

Polls have shown national support for Obama and his health care initiative dropping, which some pundits and pollsters have linked to Coakley’s own woes in Massachusetts, along with a failure to campaign aggressively. But Frank attributed Coakley’s recent troubles to the race becoming “a personality contest bereft of the issues.”

 Though a nightmare generating image, Franks comments is another reflection of the Elitism of the progressive Democrats. If they lose it can’t be because people disagree with them.

On the other hand the White House believes that Coakley is going to lose:

Election Day is still two days away so it is not time to celebrate, its time to keep up the pressure and drive the message home.

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